1. 10/23/04 US Commodities – Too Cheap? The lead article indicated one fundamental factor overlooked was the... DOLLAR. The article illustrated that some commodities were near rock bottom price levels to foreign users.
2. 11/13/04 Transitions The lead article pointed out blaring disparities in the value of interest rate futures, the dollar, and commodity prices. The article summarized that a fundamental change was taking place in the way the world values markets.
3. 11/20/04 Transitions – Part II The lead article compared commodity markets in the beginning stages of the Seventies with current trends. The article concluded: We are now in the early stages of another economic transition similar to the Seventies.
4. 12/04/04 Transitions – Part III The lead article indicated the key, underlying force behind bullish commodity markets of the Seventies was the... DOLLAR. The article concluded that current competitive devaluations in Asia were flooding the world with money and making it difficult to determine the true value of commodities.
5. 12/18/04 Transitions – Part IV The lead article indicated the US was flooding the world with cheap credit. Excessive credit expansion was behind the dollar collapse and record high crude oil prices. Economists generally believe the Fed will never raise interest rates high enough to materially slow economic growth.
6. 01/08/05 False Impression The lead article indicated that any solution to growing economic imbalances was politically unacceptable. Therefore, imbalances would be solved by the invisible hand of the marketplace. This would provide exceptional opportunities for commodity traders.
7. 01/15/05 Inflation or Deflation? “At some point in the future, it may become more important to own commodities, or funds indexed to commodities, than government bonds or other paper assets.”
8. 01/22/05 Dollar Down vs Dollar Up The lead article compared arguments by economists for the dollar to advance or decline. The article explained the dollar’s value was driven by perceptions rather than fundamental forces.
9. 02/05/05 Transitions – Part V The lead article concluded that growing volatility in commodity markets was reminiscent of the early Seventies.
10.02/19/05 Transitions – Part VI The lead article stated that markets were telling us they were rejecting the government thesis of controlling credit growth and reducing deficit spending. It concluded that we should go with the market’s judgment and plan on continued commodity inflation.
11. 02/26/05 Editor’s Note “If commodities are entering the phase we envision, there will not be traditional fundamental reasons for advances and setbacks. Opportunities like this come along only every 30 to 50 years.”
12. 03/05/05 The Next Mania The lead article compared the stock market mania of the Nineties and the recent housing mania with commodities. The article concluded in months ahead commodity markets could move into a mania phase.