1. 01/12/08 Recession versus Inflation “The likely consequences of the current effort will be a ‘commodity’ bubble rather than a resurrection in housing.”

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2. 02/16/08 Paying the Piper “Now the food Piper will be paid while other sectors of the economy struggle.”

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3. 03/29/08  Dysfunctional Markets – Part II “From an economic viewpoint, a strong case can be made that current high grain prices are sharply undervalued when compared to oil prices, inflation, or the value of the dollar.”

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4. 05/10/08 New World Order “The world has failed to prepare for the strain globalization has placed on basic commodities such as metals, energy and food.”

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5. 07/05/08 Inflation Genie Out of Bottle! “The burden of slowing global growth is being shifted to foreign nations.  Commodity traders should be watching economic policies in China and India for clues of a slowing global economy.”

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6. 07/26/08 The Greatest Shortage – Liquidity! “It appears loan defaults and bankruptcies are developing at such a fast pace the Fed can no longer print enough money to guarantee continued economic expansion.”

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7. 08/02/08 Inflation or Deflation? “Somehow, we came to view compounding of debt as earnings.  A breakdown in belief and trust may be unfolding.  By definition, this would be equivalent to a breakdown in our financial system.”

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8. 08/16/08 Pessimism Grows “With speculative money reportedly moving out of commodities and prospects increasing for a global slowdown, commodity market pessimism is growing.”

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9. 09/06/08 Liquidity Shortage Intensifies “If the credit crunch continues in months ahead, commodity markets will continue to sink… Not from more supply – But from less demand.”

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10. 09/27/08 Creative Destruction “Many traders view massive bailouts as bullish for commodities.  However, this bout of money printing is not designed to spur growth, but to offset massive banking losses and support a declining economy.”

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11. 11/01/08 Next Test – The “Real” Economy “We expect commodity markets to experience a period of consolidation until more is known about potential damage to the ‘real’ economy.”

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12. 11/15/08 Selective Recovery Ahead? “We are moving away from a short only trading posture in selected markets.”

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