1. 06/06/15 “We are entering the time of year for the marketplace to build in a ‘weather premium’ for new crop in case weather trends change into the critical pollination period.”

“Currently, a great deal of bearishness has already been discounted in new crop futures. Therefore, we expect December futures to also stabilize near recent lows in weeks ahead until more is known about summer weather trends.”

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2. 06/20/15 “The USDA reported feed/residual use for the first half of the season down 95 million bushels from last year. When feed use is down in this period, history indicates it is above the previous year in the March-May quarter. Therefore, the June 1 stocks report may be lower than expected by the trade. There are too many unknowns at this point in time to assume prices will continue the downtrend.”

“As indicated in the 6/6/15 issue, a great deal of known bearish news has been discounted in futures and traditionally the marketplace builds in a ‘weather premium’ before mid-July. Therefore, we continue to expect December futures to stabilize near recent lows until more is known about summer weather trends.”

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3. 07/04/15 “The USDA surprised the trade with June 1 stocks reported at 4447 million bushels, 108 million below the average trade estimate. However, as illustrated in the 6/20/15 issue of Price Perceptions, our estimate of the stocks report was 4433 million, very close to the actual report.”

“Unless new significant damage occurs to the crop in weeks ahead, our economic value studies indicate the weather premium should not exceed the $4.50 level for December futures by any significant margin.” (The crop scare high was attained on 7/14/15 at $4.54.)

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4. 07/18/15 “The recent price advance stimulated heavy farmer selling. It was so heavy piles of corn have been reported at country elevator locations. The 91 cent advance in December futures should have discounted all known crop damage to date.”

 

“The market also moved deep into the primary recovery zone shown previously from 4.33 to 4.69. However, an outside reversal occurred this week, indicating the advance may be ending.”

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December 2015 Corn

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